发布时间:2023-12-08 07:01:59 来源: sp20231208
(作)(者)(:)(后)(歆)(桐) (周)(一)(亚)(太)(早)(盘)(,)COMEX(黄)(金)(期)(货)(站)(上)2150(美)(元)/(盎)(司)(关)(口)(,)(续)(创)(历)(史)(新)(高)(;)(现)(货)(黄)(金)(短)(线)(也)(飙)(升)(至)2144(美)(元)/(盎)(司)(,)(刷)(新)(今)(年)5(月)(创)(下)(的)(历)(史)(高)(位)(。) (除)(黄)(金)(外)(,)(其)(他)(贵)(金)(属)(也)(纷)(纷)(上)(涨)(:)COMEX(白)(银)(报)26.06(美)(元)/(盎)(司)(,)(涨)0.79%(,)(接)(近)(半)(年)(来)(新)(高)(;)NYMEX(铂)(金)(报)946(美)(元)/(盎)(司)(,)(涨)1.06%(,)(接)(近)(约)(一)(年)(新)(高)(;)NYMEX(钯)(金)(涨)0.55%(,)(报)1016(美)(元)/(盎)(司)(。) (市)(场)(分)(析)(认)(为)(,)(本)(轮)(金)(价)(突)(破)(背)(后)(最)(大)(推)(手)(或)(是)(对)(美)(联)(储)(降)(息)(的)(押)(注)(,)(其)(他)(推)(升)(因)(素)(还)(包)(括)(地)(缘)(政)(治)(因)(素)(,)(全)(球)(央)(行)(超)(强)(劲)(买)(入)(等)(。)(展)(望)(未)(来)(,)(分)(析)(师)(认)(为)(黄)(金)(明)(年)(仍)(能)(维)(持)(涨)(势)(,)(甚)(至)(不)(仅)(黄)(金)(,)(美)(联)(储)(降)(息)(预)(期)(下)(,)(市)(场)(将)(迎)(来)(一)(波)(跨)(资)(产)(涨)(势)(。) (哪)(些)(因)(素)(推)(动)(?) (在)(此)(次)(突)(破)(前)(,)(黄)(金)(已)(盘)(整)(了)(三)(年)(,)(这)(是)(三)(年)(来)(第)(三)(次)(尝)(试)(冲)(击)2100(美)(元)/(盎)(司)(。)(近)(期)(公)(布)(的)(一)(系)(列)(美)(国)(经)(济)(数)(据)(比)(分)(析)(师)(预)(期)(的)(疲)(软)(,)(通)(胀)(压)(力)(也)(持)(续)(缓)(解)(,)(不)(断)(巩)(固)(市)(场)(对)(美)(联)(储)(已)(结)(束)(加)(息)(周)(期)(、)(明)(年)(将)(开)(始)(降)(息)(的)(预)(期)(。) (美)(国)11(月)ISM(制)(造)(业)(指)(数)(为)46.7(,)(预)(期)47.6(,)(前)(值)46.7(,)(与)10(月)(持)(平)(,)(低)(于)(市)(场)(预)(期)(。)(开)(源)(证)(券)(表)(示)(,)(两)(大)PMI(体)(系)(都)(对)(美)(国)11(月)(制)(造)(业)(给)(出)(了)(低)(于)(荣)(枯)(线)(的)PMI(,)(进)(一)(步)(加)(大)(了)(市)(场)(对)(于)(美)(联)(储)(本)(轮)(加)(息)(周)(期)(已)(经)(结)(束)(,)(甚)(至)(最)(快)(可)(能)(在)2024(年)3(月)(开)(始)(降)(息)(的)(预)(期)(,)(黄)(金)(价)(格)(因)(此)(得)(到)(支)(撑)(。) Capital.com(驻)(墨)(尔)(本)(的)(高)(级)(市)(场)(分)(析)(师)(罗)(达)(Kyle Rodda)(也)(称)(:)(“)(市)(场)(正)(在)(大)(举)(押)(注)(美)(联)(储)(降)(息)(。)(并)(且)(,)(金)(价)也)(会)(在)(经)(济)(衰)(退)(出)(现)(早)(期)(迹)(象)(时)(走)(高)(。)(这)(都)(会)(推)(动)(金)(价)(继)(续)(上)(涨)(。)(”) (瑞)(银)(预)(计)(,)(美)(联)(储)(降)(息)(预)(期)(叠)(加)(实)(际)(利)(率)(下)(跌)(,)(黄)(金)(在)2024(年)(和)2025(年)(可)(能)(会)(再)(创)(下)(新)(高)(。)(瑞)(银)(认)(为)(,)(美)(联)(储)(将)(在)2024(年)(第)(一)(季)(度)(降)(息)(,)(如)(果)(今)(年)12(月)(暂)(停)(加)(息)(,)(这)(将)(继)(续)(证)(实)(美)(联)(储)(倾)(向)(于)(在)(最)(后)(一)(加)(后)(的)6(个)(月)(左)(右)(降)(息)(。)(而)(瑞)(银)(观)(察)(黄)(金)(在)(美)(联)(储)(历)(次)(加)(息)(周)(期)(后)(的)(表)(现)(发)(现)(,)(在)(以)(往)(加)(息)(周)(期)(结)(束)(后)(的)3(个)(月)(左)(右)(,)(金)(价)(往)(往)(会)(下)(跌)2%(,)(但)(在)(接)(下)(来)(的)6(个)(月)(内)(会)(上)(涨)7%(。) (此)(外)(,)(瑞)(银)(还)(表)(示)(,)(实)(际)(利)(率)(也)(是)(金)(价)(的)(主)(要)(驱)(动)(因)(素)(。)(尽)(管)(两)(者)(相)(关)(性)(的)(程)(度)(会)(随)(着)(时)(间)(推)(移)(而)(变)(化)(,)(但)(该)(关)(系)(中)(的)(不)(对)(称)(性)(始)(终)(存)(在)(。)(瑞)(银)(发)(现)(,)10(年)(期)(美)(债)(实)(际)(利)(率)(每)(下)(降)100(个)(基)(点)(,)(黄)(金)(就)(会)(上)(涨)11%(,)(但)(在)(实)(际)(利)(率)(录)(得)(同)(等)(涨)(幅)(时)(,)(黄)(金)(只)(会)(下)(跌)4.2%(。)(基)(于)(此)(,)(瑞)(银)(认)(为)(,)(当)(利)(率)(下)(降)(时)(,)(黄)(金)(的)(反)(弹)(幅)(度)(比)(利)(率)(上)(升)(时)(的)(回)(调)(幅)(度)(更)(大)(。)(相)(对)(于)(历)(史)(水)(平)(,)(今)(年)(黄)(金)(对)(实)(际)(收)(益)(率)(的)(敏)(感)(性)(有)(所)(下)(降)(,)(但)(这)(种)(不)(对)(称)(性)(仍)(然)(存)(在)(,)(使)(黄)(金)(成)(为)(债)(券)(领)(域)(之)(外)(的)(有)(吸)(引)(力)(的)(替)(代)(品)(,)(如)(果)(未)(来)(一)(年)(实)(际)(利)(率)(下)(降)(,)(黄)(金)(有)(望)(持)(续)(受)(益)(。)(瑞)(银)(还)(发)(现)(,)(当)(实)(际)(利)(率)(低)(于)1.25%(并)(继)(续)(下)(降)(时)(,)(金)(价)(涨)(幅)(甚)(至)(更)(大)(,)(会)(达)(到)14%(。) (此)(外)(,)(地)(缘)(政)(治)(因)(素)(也)(在)(短)(期)(推)(升)(金)(价)(。)(比)(如)(,)(市)(场)(对)(中)(东)(紧)(张)(局)(势)(进)(一)(步)(蔓)(延)(的)(担)(忧)(快)(速)(升)(温)(,)(由)(此)(引)(发)(的)(避)(险)(买)(盘)(给)(金)(价)(提)(供)(支)(撑)(。) DHF Capital(的)(首)(席)(执)(行)(官)(兼)(资)(产)(管)(理)(公)(司)(考)(基)(曼)(Bas Kooijman)(表)(示)(,)(随)(着)(市)(场)(对)(中)(东)(紧)(张)(局)(势)(升)(级)(作)(出)(反)(应)(,)(这)(种)(升)(级)(“)(助)(推)(过)(去)(两)(个)(月)(的)(黄)(金)(上)(升)(趋)(势)(延)(续)(”)(。)(他)(同)(时)(表)(示)(,)(交)(易)(员)(也)(一)(直)(押)(注)(加)(息)(周)(期)(结)(束)(,)(并)(可)(能)(在)(明)(年)(上)(半)(年)(降)(息)(,)(这)(可)(能)(会)(在)(中)(期)(继)(续)(支)(撑)(金)(价)(的)(上)(涨)(。) (再)(者)(,)(全)(球)(央)(行)(也)(在)(持)(续)(购)(买)(黄)(金)(,)(对)(金)(价)(也)(有)(托)(底)(作)(用)(。)(世)(界)(黄)(金)(协)(会)(发)(布)(的)(数)(据)(显)(示)(,)2023(年)(三)(季)(度)(全)(球)(央)(行)(净)(购)(黄)(金)337(吨)(,)(为)(有)(史)(以)(来)(第)(三)(高)(的)(季)(度)(净)(购)(金)(量)(,)(今)(年)(前)(三)(个)(季)(度)(,)(全)(球)(央)(行)(购)(金)(需)(求)(同)(比)(增)(长)(了)14%(,)(达)(到)(创)(纪)(录)(的)800(吨)(。) (瑞)(银)(表)(示)(,)(虽)(然)(这)(些)(黄)(金)(流)(量)(本)(身)(不)(太)(可)(能)(推)(动)(价)(格)(上)(涨)(,)(但)(它)(们)(将)(继)(续)(发)(挥)(关)(键)(作)(用)(,)(撑)(住)(市)(场)(,)(并)(支)(持)(整)(体)(价)(格)(上)(涨)(趋)(势)(。) (跨)(资)(产)(涨)(势)(能)(否)(持)(续)(?) (事)(实)(上)(,)(本)(轮)(涨)(势)(绝)(非)(限)(于)(黄)(金)(。)(由)(于)(交)(易)(员)(们)(普)(遍)(相)(信)(美)(联)(储)(本)(轮)(加)(息)(周)(期)(已)(经)(结)(束)(,)(全)(球)(股)(市)(、)(债)(市)11(月)(以)(来)(也)(集)(体)(飙)(升)(。)(标)(普)500(指)(数)(上)(周)(上)(涨)0.8%(,)(收)(于)2022(年)3(月)(以)(来)(的)(最)(高)(水)(平)(。)(道)(琼)(斯)(指)(数)(上)(周)(也)(大)(幅)(上)(涨)2.4%(,)(连)(续)(第)(五)(周)(走)(高)(,)(创)(下)(自)2021(年)(底)(以)(来)(最)(长)(的)(连)(涨)(。)(同)(时)(,)10(年)(期)(美)(债)(收)(益)(率)(跌)(至)4.225%(,)(录)(得)9(月)(初)(以)(来)(的)(最)(低)(水)(平)(。)(对)(利)(率)(预)(期)(最)(为)(敏)(感)(的)2(年)(期)(美)(债)(收)(益)(率)(,)(上)(周)(更)(是)(创)(下)(了)3(月)(硅)(谷)(银)(行)(倒)(闭)(以)(来)(的)(最)(大)(单)(周)(跌)(幅)(。)(比)(特)(币)(今)(日)(也)(自)2022(年)5(月)(以)(来)(首)(次)(触)(及)40000(美)(元)(。) (眼)(下)(,)(降)(息)(似)(乎)(已)(成)(为)(市)(场)(的)(共)(识)(,)(分)(歧)(仅)(仅)(在)(于)(,)(何)(时)(开)(始)(降)(息)(以)(及)(降)(息)(的)(幅)(度)(多)(大)(。)(如)(果)(美)(联)(储)(确)(实)(最)(快)(在)(明)(年)3(月)(降)(息)(,)(然)(后)(继)(续)(实)(施)(更)(多)(量)(化)(宽)(松)(,)(分)(析)(师)(预)(期)(各)(项)(资)(产)(都)(有)(望)(创)(下)(历)(史)(新)(高)(。) (美)(联)(储)(主)(席)(鲍)(威)(尔)(近)(期)(表)(示)(,)(美)(联)(储)(的)(政)(策)(设)(定)(“)(已)(经)(深)(入)(限)(制)(性)(区)(域)(,)(这)(意)(味)(着)(紧)(缩)(的)(货)(币)(政)(策)(”)(正)(在)(减)(缓)(经)(济)(活)(动)(,)(这)(是)(他)(迄)(今)(为)(止)(对)(本)(轮)(加)(息)(周)(期)(已)(结)(束)(发)(出)(的)(最)(强)(烈)(信)(号)(。)(但)(鲍)(威)(尔)(的)(评)(论)(同)(时)(也)(仍)(充)(满)(谨)(慎)(,)(“)(现)(在)(就)(自)(信)(地)(断)(定)(我)(们)(已)(采)(取)(足)(够)(的)(限)(制)(性)(立)(场)(还)(为)(时)(过)(早)(”) (。)(但)(无)(论)(鲍)(威)(尔)(到)(底)(传)(达)(的)(是)(“)(鸽)(派)(”)(还)(是)(“)(鹰)(派)(”)(信)(号)(,)(市)(场)(似)(乎)(都)(愿)(意)(将)(其)(解)(读)(为)(“)(鸽)(派)(”)(。)(此)(前)(鲍)(威)(尔)(讲)(话)(后)(,)(美)(债)(收)(益)(率)(的)(涨)(势)(只)(维)(持)(了)(几)(秒)(钟)(,)(随)(即)(继)(续)(下)(跌)(。)COMEX(黄)(金)(期)(金)(其)(后)(也)(在)(上)(周)(五)(升)(至)(历)(史)(新)(高)(。) (从)(利)(率)(市)(场)(的)(定)(价)(看)(,)(在)(降)(息)(时)(点)(上)(,)(市)(场)(已)(对)(美)(联)(储)(在)(明)(年)5(月)(降)(息)(进)(行)(了)(全)(面)(定)(价)(,)(对)(明)(年)3(月)(降)(息)(的)(押)(注)(概)(率)(也)(已)(超)(过)50%(。)(在)(降)(息)(幅)(度)(上)(,)(目)(前)(市)(场)(的)(预)(期)(是)(美)(联)(储)(明)(年)(将)(至)(少)(降)(息)125(个)(基)(点)(,)(相)(当)(于)5(次)25(个)(基)(点)(的)(降)(息)(,)(这)(一)(押)(注)(似)(乎)(已)(经)(为)(美)(债)(收)(益)(率)(的)(进)(一)(步)(下)(滑)(,)(以)(及)(股)(、)(债)(、)(大)(宗)(商)(品)(市)(场)(的)(持)(续)(反)(弹)(铺)(平)(了)(道)(路)(。) (还)(值)(得)(一)(提)(的)(是)(,)(眼)(下)(市)(场)(不)(仅)(押)(注)(美)(联)(储)(降)(息)(。)(根)(据)(市)(场)(人)(士)(对)(利)(率)(互)(换)(合)(约)(的)(统)(计)(,)(交)(易)(员)(们)(已)(经)(对)(其)(他)(多)(国)(央)(行)(首)(次)(降)(息)(的)(时)(点)(进)(行)(了)(完)(全)(定)(价)(。)(具)(体)(而)(言)(,)(市)(场)(押)(注)(欧)(洲)(央)(行)(、)(加)(拿)(大)(央)(行)(将)(于)(明)(年)4(月)(,)(美)(联)(储)(将)(于)(明)(年)5(月)(,)(瑞)(士)(央)(行)(、)(英)(国)(央)(行)(将)(于)(明)(年)6(月)(,)(新)(西)(兰)(联)(储)(将)(于)(明)(年)8(月)(,)(澳)(大)(利)(亚)(联)(储)(将)(于)(明)(年)12(月)(首)(次)(降)(息)(。) LPL Financial(的)(分)(析)(师)(克)(罗)(斯)(拜)(尔)(Quincy Krosby)(表)(示)(:)(“)(尽)(管)(美)(联)(储)(的)(鸽)(派)(和)(鹰)(派)(似)(乎)(都)(围)(绕)(着)(一)(种)(更)(加)(‘)(谨)(慎)(’)(的)(政)(策)(方)(法)(,)(并)(承)(认)(政)(策)(仍)(然)(是)(适)(当)(的)(,)(但)(市)(场)(显)(然)(不)(同)(意)(。)(”)(她)(称)(,)(市)(场)(坚)(信)(美)(联)(储)(在)11(月)(作)(出)(了)(鸽)(派)(的)(决)(定)(,)(并)(将)(在)2024(年)(中)(期)((甚)(至)(更)(早))(之)(前)(将)(开)(始)(降)(息)(周)(期)(,)(这)(反)(驳)(了)(利)(率)(“)(更)(高)(更)(久)(”)(的)(口)(号)(。) (不)(过)(,)(也)(有)(机)(构)(担)(心)(此)(次)(“)(鸽)(派)(”)(押)(注)(会)(再)(度)(受)(挫)(。)(德)(意)(志)(银)(行)(统)(计)(称)(,)(此)(次)(押)(注)(已)(经)(是)(本)(轮)(紧)(缩)(周)(期)(中)(,)(市)(场)(人)(士)(第)(七)(次)(押)(注)(美)(联)(储)(将)(“)(鸽)(派)(”)(转)(向)(,)(而)(此)(前)(六)(次)(均)(以)(失)(败)(告)(终)(。) AMP(公)(司)(的)(投)(资)(策)(略)(主)(管)(兼)(首)(席)(经)(济)(学)(家)(奥)(利)(弗)(Shane Oliver)(在)(给)(客)(户)(的)(一)(份)(报)(告)(中)(写)(道)(:)(“)(美)(股)(的)(大)(幅)(反)(弹)(使)(它)(们)(在)(技)(术)(上)(超)(买)(,)(并)(面)(临)(调)(整)(或)(短)(期)(回)(调)(的)(风)(险)(。)(”)(但)(他)(也)(坦)(言)(,)(“)(随)(着)(通)(胀)(的)(持)(续)(缓)(解)(,)(今)(年)(年)(底)(和)(明)(年)(年)(初)(,)(美)(股)(可)(能)(会)(进)(一)(步)(上)(涨)(”)(,)(本)(月)(稍)(晚)(市)(场)(的)(季)(节)(性)(利)(好)(也)(会)(开)(始)(显)(现)(。) (本)(周)(,)(一)(系)(列)(经)(济)(数)(据)(的)(出)(炉)(将)(再)(度)(考)(验)(市)(场)(,)(尤)(其)(是)(周)(五)(的)(非)(农)(数)(据)(。)(接)(受)(媒)(体)(调)(查)(的)(经)(济)(学)(家)(预)(计)(,)(随)(着)(此)(前)(美)(国)(车)(企)(罢)(工)(的)(工)(人)(陆)(续)(重)(返)(岗)(位)(,)11(月)(新)(增)(非)(农)(就)(业)(人)(数)(料)(将)(从)(上)(个)(月)(的)15(万)(升)(至)20(万)(。)(失)(业)(率)(预)(计)(将)(稳)(定)(在)3.9%(,)(而)(薪)(资)(增)(速)(预)(计)(将)(略)(微)(放)(缓)(至)4%(。) (【)(编)(辑):(曹)(子)(健)(】)